| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Asset | 400 TPD contracted · four 100 TPD modules inside a 1,000 TPD building envelope — six further module slots pre-built |
| Vehicle | Single-site, bankruptcy-remote SPV under Carbotura Holdings |
| Total build CapEx | $240.0M — $20.0M civil engineering and 1,000 TPD building + 4 × $55.0M modules at contracted DFM pricing |
| Equity | $75.0M funds civils, the building envelope and module 1. Never more than one increment exposed; every dollar returned to TopCo by the fourth takeout. |
| Circular Bond™ | Four takeouts — $75M, $55M, $55M, $55M · 7.00% · 20-year · $240.0M outstanding at full build |
| CSA | Signed · Option A election · 30-year term · Beneficiation Fee (TMC Fee) $75/ton, escalating 2.5%/yr |
| Ramp | 100 TPD Year 1 → 200 → 300 → 400 TPD by Year 4 · 146,000 tons/yr at full capacity |
| Excluded from base case | All production and environmental attribute credits — §45Q, §45V, §45X — carried at zero. Merchant prices struck at 50% of market. |
| Cash Waterfall | Yr 1 100 TPD | Yr 2 200 TPD | Yr 3 300 TPD | Yr 4 400 TPD | Yr 5 400 TPD | Yr 10 400 TPD | Yr 20 400 TPD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beneficiation Fee (contracted, +2.5%/yr) | $2.7M | $5.6M | $8.6M | $11.8M | $12.0M | $13.4M | $16.2M |
| RevCon™ Materials (merchant, at 50% of market) | $28.2M | $57.8M | $88.9M | $121.3M | $124.1M | $138.2M | $166.4M |
| Environmental attributes (CEAA) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total revenue | $30.9M | $63.4M | $97.5M | $133.1M | $136.2M | $151.6M | $182.6M |
| EBITDA | $22.7M | $43.5M | $53.2M | $75.9M | $74.2M | $83.2M | $100.1M |
| Total debt service (interest + principal) | –$1.0M | –$4.9M | –$7.8M | –$10.6M | –$12.5M | –$7.5M | –$3.8M |
| DSCR — all revenue | 22.18× | 8.90× | 6.85× | 7.20× | 5.95× | 11.08× | 26.23× |
| Beneficiation Fee alone ÷ debt service | 2.68× | 1.15× | 1.11× | 1.12× | 0.97× | 1.79× | 4.23× |
| Increment 1 | Increment 2 | Increment 3 | Increment 4 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CapEx (drawn Years 1–4) | $75.0M | $55.0M | $55.0M | $55.0M | $240.0M |
| Funded at draw by | Parent equity | Recycled equity | Recycled equity | Recycled equity | — |
| Circular Bond™ takeout | $75.0M | $55.0M | $55.0M | $55.0M | $240.0M |
| Recycled to TopCo | $75.0M | $55.0M | $55.0M | $55.0M | $240.0M |
| Cumulative bonds outstanding | $75.0M | $130.0M | $185.0M | $240.0M | $240.0M |
| Coupon · tenor | 7.00% · 20 yr | 7.00% · 20 yr | 7.00% · 20 yr | 7.00% · 20 yr | $16.80M interest p.a. |
| Takeout timing | Increment 1 in service | Increment 2 in service | Increment 3 in service | Increment 4 in service | — |
| Qualifying energy property CapEx | $240.0M |
| Base §48 rate | 6% |
| Prevailing wage & apprenticeship multiplier | × 5 |
| Domestic content adder | +10% |
| Energy community adder | +10% |
| Effective ITC rate | 50% |
| ITC generated, gross | $120.0M |
| Less: transfer discount at 92% realisation | –$9.6M |
| ITC cash received, net | $110.4M |
| Valuation Build | Value |
|---|---|
| PV of forecast period free cash flow | $317.1M |
| PV of terminal value | $26.2M |
| Enterprise value | $343.3M |
| Less: net debt at Year 0 | — |
| Equity value | $343.3M |
| Terminal value as share of EV | 7.6% |
| EV / Year 5 EBITDA | 4.62× |
| Discount Rate | Rate |
|---|---|
| Cost of equity | 17.00% |
| Blended cost of debt, pre-tax | 6.81% |
| Tax rate | 21.0% |
| WACC applied | 12.35% |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% |
| Range Point | Value | % of GRV | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sensitivity — NPV at cost of equity | $827.6M | 19.4% | Discounted at 17.00% |
| Recognised — board-approved carrying value | $900.0M | 21.1% | Carried in the notes |
| Mid — NPV at modelled-stack WACC | $1,114.4M | 26.2% | Discounted at 12.35% |
| High — gross reserve at 50% overlay | $4,259.3M | 100% | Undiscounted, primary basis |
| Ceiling — gross reserve at full spot | $8,518.6M | 200% | Disclosure only |